Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Murphy's law

A muted response to the big squeeze last night as we pre-empted the rally. I suspect we'll push into the close though. FMG opened firm and got up to 479 but has reversed to be trading at 457. So I've been caught on the swings and roundabouts. RSG is doing pretty well with a solid rise to 197.5. I'm hoping for a move above the recent high of 214.

chart

IPL was maybe not the trade to take. I'm generally trying to avoid trading what I think is a 4th wave but this looked tradeable in that the distance to resistance might imply a move above 330. I've actually had it on a list of potential shorts for the last few days also so that was maybe a clue. Anyway, it's down a couple at 317 and I'll just pull the stop in tight. A good scenario would be to take the trade off on a move up to 330ish and look for a short on failure to kick on.

chart

I was thinking of buying PDN yesterday but the close was a bit iffy. Today's action is much better and it might be worth buying a lesser amount at this later stage with another higher low shaping up.

chart

4.07 It looks as if there's a large portfolio on the close with high volume and sizeable prospective moves, both up and down, which are shrinking as the match approaches. IPL is offered into the match but I'm encouraged by that because it might explain the underperformance today.

The market is near the highs and will probably go a bit further on the match. I've got some PDN on the bid.... and I've just got set at 155. The stop is at 140. The market jumped 14 points at 4.10 to leave the Asx 200 with a rise of 44 points.

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