Thursday, November 17, 2011

One step ahead

The market is ignoring the overnight weakness in US indices having jumped the gun yesterday and the index has been chopping around the breakeven level and is now (2.10 pm) near the day's high at 4260, up 13. I was expecting further weakness today but now the Asx 200 chart is developing the same sort of pennant shape as we're seeing in the DJIA and S&P 500 daily charts.

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Gold miner Perseus has had a weak day and there's no news yet but I assume the market is trading on some kind of rumour. I bought half back at 323 on the open as it gapped down to give me close to a 10% gain on the entry price of 355.

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The rest of my positions are mixed. I'm concerned about my short position in ALL. It's up just 4 cents but I was looking for short term weakness after a potential lower high and this is the third day without any weakness. It's also a play on US economic recovery, like BLD, and I can see why investors might be looking to accumulate. My entry level was 237 with an initial stop at 248 but I think I'll get out on the close if the stock holds these levels.

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I reluctantly cut a long in OSH on Tuesday but I might get another buying opportunity today.

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4.12 The peak was a gain of 30 points in mid afternoon but the Asx 200 was up just 11 by the close.

I cut ALL soon after I posted previously. It had pushed to 241 to confirm an earlier break of yesterday's high and it occurred to me that it would give me a bullish signal by the close. I'm now long at 243 as it looks like it was a minor pennant (again) correction in a bullish chart. Stop is at 235.

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OSH did enough to let me buy on close at 634. Stop is at 618 and, once again, I'm hoping for a push to 670-680.

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