Aristocrat holds up – is it a buy?

The market is solidly lower today after European markets gave back early gains to close mildly lower and US futures reflected that, in the absence of any actual trading due to the Thanksgiving holiday. At 2.51 pm, the Asx 200 is 1.6% lower on very light volume.

Back to the main point, I should really have cut ALL yesterday. At first, I assumed that it was whippy action in a thin market but then realised that there was substance behind the move with volume well above the daily average. The weakness today gave me an opportunity to get out but I just missed my fill after finally getting to the front of the queue and I chased it to 231 which was a small profit but obviously I would have preferred 228/229. Ironically it's 229 now but the buying keeps arriving even though there are plenty of sellers. I figure that there's a decent buy order and the operator is keeping some stock on the offer to stop it running away while being a net buyer.

I was considering buying it on a reversal because the combination of bars for Wednesday and Thursday is often a good turnaround indicator. However, it's more effective towards the bottom of a range (or top with the reverse pattern) and the short term pattern looks like an incomplete 5 wave move.

Essentially, I think it's a bearish chart but I've been stopped out of my short position by a decent bounce.

Otherwise, IAU is down 6.5 at 105. I bought back half of the short at 106.5 which was a gain of 13 cents and a basic profit target. Now to let the rest run.

Telstra is going nowhere fast which is its default state. I got the confirmation of a sell signal with some trades at 311 but there's been a rebound to 313.

FMG is continuing to hold up quite well after the break on Wednesday. I was hoping for a quick dip but at least it's moving down. The 60 minute chart is chopping around and looks like it might edge higher but I'm reasonably confident that there's more to go.

There are a couple of buying opportunities in OST and PXS which may come good by the close. I'll post if anything resolves.

4.12 The buys didn't come through. PXS is a solid chart but needed a stronger day for me to step in, while OST is making a reversal but it's such a weak chart that I need a pullback to a higher low to get me in there. The market recovered a smidgin to be down 60 at 3984.