Monday, November 28, 2011

Mind the gap

More fast and loose action has the Aussie market up 1.8% at 3.33 pm. That's 70 points and the rise was almost 88 at the intraday peak. I'm out of my short in TLS at 314 for a 2 cent loss after my trailing stop was hit at 315. I waited a while but not long enough because it's back at 312. IAU was better as my trailing stop was at 112 and it traded through to 115. It was fairly short lived though and I bought the balance of the short back at 108.5 (v 119.5).

My last position is a short in FMG and this was the one where my fill wasn't that great. I got short at 460 at the end of a big down day and I was willing to cop a retracement rally. I thought I might have got away with it but the stock is back at 467, having touched 473, and I'm in two minds. Essentially, my plan is to trade momentum and avoid sitting through choppy retracements which may turn out to not be retracements at all. However, the pattern is reasonably robust and when I put on the trade I thought it worth the risk. It could rally back through the recent congestion around 480-490 and negate the breakout but the set up favours a move towards 400.

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There are a couple of gold stocks which are setting up quite well. In both cases I was pondering a buy a couple of days ago and that would have been a good move in hindsight. However the spot gold price is recovering now and providing support and I'll look to get into both on the close.

The first is in PRU. Today should be the first day in a few weeks to trade above and close above the previous high. There's been reasonable support just below 280 too. My stop will be just below the recent 269 low.

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RSG has been performing very well for a few months and broke through 180 resistance in early November. The pullback held at that level and a higher low will be confirmed if it trades through 195.5. My stop will be at 182.

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As for the Asx 200; the recent sharp move down from the double top may have completed a 3rd wave with today being the start of a correction. It does make me somewhat nervous about the FMG short.

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Bought back the FMG at 470. The trailing stop would have been 458 for a small profit but it was a question of guessing that the opening price would be the lowest of the day and the overnight leads were not particularly strong. So be it.

Long PRU at 284 and RSG at 193. Also long IPL at 319 although I think it's probably just a 4th wave thing so I'll take this off quickly.

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