Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Putting on a brave face

The market has been resilient today after woeful overnight leads from Europe and the US. There was a late rally in the States but the losses were around 2% despite that. The initial fall for the Asx 200 was about 71 points but the drop is 26 at 2.42pm.

It has been a reasonably good day for me with a predominantly short book. OST has benefitted from a BSL capital raising as fund managers sell the stock to make room for the extra BSL they'll be buying at the heavily discounted issue price of 40 cents per share. I'm tempted to take the balance off because this kind of selling as a knock on effect can be a bit of a freebie as the investment merits of the affected stock reassert themselves in subsequent sessions.

3.52 Fortescue has been very well bid for the last 4 sessions, defying the overall market weakness. I was close to stopping out on yesterday's close but felt that it was due to get crunched. It was soft early but the buying came back and it is once again rallying from early lows. I'll be closing out the short (482) on the match.

chart

AWC has reversed after making a marginal new low relative to the mid October level. I was looking for a drop to about 130 but a trailing stop was actually triggered earlier with a trade as high as 141.5. I wasn't quite convinced at the time but it's closing well so I'll get out of this one too.

chart

It's the same with WSA, while in OST I'm buying back also. The book is going to be pretty flat overnight.

One new trade is a short in IAU. It hasn't been walloped today despite the gold price slump but there's a 1-2-3 sell signal with trading below 120 and the possibility that last week's high was a short term peak.

chart

4.25 The index closed down 30 although the futures are dropping after the close. I'm out of shorts in AWC, FMG, OST and WSA. I'm short IAU at 120. The trend looks set in and I didn't really want to buy back – except in OST – but there you go. The Asx 200 has been outperforming for the last couple of days so I doubt if we'll have a sustained bounce tomorrow even if overseas markets pop back up.

No comments:

Post a Comment