Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Or turn down

By the way, I've got no appetite to write about the mental game of trading. I think it's because I blog during the trading day and it's not necessarily a time for reflection. I'm going to change the title again to reflect what I am trying to do but it might take a week or two to get around to it.

Apart from the US services PMI, most of the monthlies were disappointing. The Asx 200 has been grinding down all day and I'm out of the long in PRU – dud trade or dud entry, at least – and into two new shorts and one defensive long.

Resource stocks were sold overnight after an official growth reduction from China and that has been the main driver today.

My last long position is in NAB March 2400 calls. I sold out the extras from yesterday for a small profit and am left with the original trade. I don't think I chose my moment well to get in but there's some short term support and I'll hold the balance for a little longer. I'm happy enough with the weekly, just not the entry point.

The new, defensive long is sleep apnoea treatment company Resmed. I bought RMD at 280 and I'll wait till later to complete. The stock has had a shallow correction and is resuming an uptrend. My stop is at 270 and 300 is a reasonable target. It's the sort of safe haven that might outperform in a weak market.

chart

2.34 Just back from the gym to find the RBA has left rates unchanged although the commentary is reasonably neutral. There's no real reaction from the currency and the market is renewing the sell off after a pause.

The short positions are in AGO and PDN. I've had a couple of stabs at buying AGO recently and have exited for small profits both times after a failure to press on. It's a bit of a clue that the stock has been peaking. I'm short at 311 with a stop at 325 and I'm hoping for a quick break of 300 with a drop towards 280.

chart

I was keen to short PDN yesterday but was out of the office. I didn't miss much and my entry is after support has broken so it's better quality. Short at 177.5 with a stop 10 cents higher and with 160 as the first downside target.

chart

Here's the updated Asx 200 daily chart showing a break of minor support at 4250 and with 4200 hoving into view. If the index fails to hold and push through 4350-4400 then a move to new lows at around 3700-3800 is likely in the medium term.

chart

4.16 I paid 279 for the RMD balance. Otherwise, AGO and PDN closed at 308 and 175 with NAB a relatively good performer on the day, down just 5 at 2348 as the index fell 58 points to close at 4205.

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