It's the end of quarter and the market is up again, 19 points to 4357 at 1.36 pm. My stocks are mixed with financials having a rest and resources playing catch up. I was toying with the idea of going long BHP or RIO. They're both holding support but the problem is that the weekly charts are unconvincing.
Here's RIO. It's making higher lows but it has also already had a three wave rally after a big slump in August last year and neither upswing was able to regain those earlier levels.
Both BHP and RIO gapped up and then rallied strongly from there so it feels like a lost opportunity; well, it is a lost opportunity. Never mind, I have had some joy in OSH. It opened weaker, continuing yesterday's fall and I bought more April 725 calls at 4. The stock made a higher low at 682 (v 681) and is now back at 698. It strengthens the case for a push back to the recent highs around 735-740.
Out of a quarter of the XJO May 4350 call position at 94 (v 64). I'm reasonably confident that there's more to come in the index but there may be a one or two day reaction once the March end markings are set. The 60 minute chart shows what I think is a first wave (starting on the 23rd) followed by a third wave which subdivided into five and may therefore chop back on Monday and Tuesday.
3.42 The gains are ebbing away, just 2 points now. It's almost the reverse of the old pattern of ramping the market at quarter end. Everyone is so scared of being investigated that they pull back on the buying even if they're bullish.
4.14 The final verdict was a loss of 3 points to 4335 on the day and a gain of 279 points on the quarter; close to 7%.
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