Uncanny

It's a long way from over for today but after a mildly weaker open the market swept down to 4244.9 which is the exact low of the previous two days. If it holds, it's a triple bottom on a minor scale and might still herald a move back to the top of the range around 4350. We had our reaction to the Greek news yesterday and European and US markets responded in a similar way with rises between 0.5 and 1%. Just before the open, there was news of Moody's downgrades to the debt of 9 nations with the UK being the most significant but it is hard to take the agencies seriously. Resources slipped a little further overnight so my hopes of a catch up today are out of order but a drop of 35 to 4250 (at 1.25 pm) seems excessive when Asian markets are only a fraction lower.

Here's a 60 minute chart of the Asx 200 showing the (potential) triple bottom. My take is that we're seeing a pennant correction with one more move up to come.

The two new positions in AWC and PDN are mixed with losses in AWC being cancelled out by gains in PDN, which reports today. My positions are very short term at the moment with the market at a potential turning point. The last position in LNC is under pressure again despite reasonable buying. I sold out a few more at 138 on the open and it's trading at 134.5 now, off 2. It's close to support at 132.5

2.06 The index is struggling to pull away from 4244.9. If it fails, it's not overly significant because there's plenty more support between 4200 and 4230 but it makes it less likely that there would be a swift rally.

2.32 The day's low is now 4234 and the slow, choppy rally since late December is grinding to a halt. It's time to watch and wait. My default position has been long for a month or so and now it's too hard to pick. It's just a shame that the rally has never gained any momentum.

3.06 Early signs are that the PDN result is disappointing or the guidance, at least. Out at 180 compared to an entry of 179.

3.38 Japanese markets up while HSI and Kospi are unchanged. S&P futures down just over 1 point. The Asx 200 has rallied back a bit but remains an outlier with a loss of 1%.

3.54 Out of LNC at 131.5 as it breaks support. I sold a few higher up so the loss was limited to 2 cents per share on the original quantity. Should have stopped out yesterday – no real excuse.

4.12 The Asx 200 finished at 4243 which was a loss of 42 points. I stopped out of AWC on the close at 117.5. It was a bit of a slack trade and I got punished for looseness today. I'm not especially bearish, I think we're due to swing back up, but I need to be in the right stocks.