Friday, February 24, 2012

Lagging back

I've been out for much of the day and at 3.27 pm the Asx 200 is holding above 4300, at 4303, close to the day's highs. I'm making a point of going through weekly charts first and after cross checking the sort of analyst expectations in the FnArena website, it seems that recent rallies in commodities are not really priced in. The pre Christmas fear of a European pandemic has subsided but it isn't reflected in price targets. It encourages me to think that there might be plenty of upside in the small resource sector that I focus on.

I've added a new long in AWC at 122 and I might add a few more at the close. The January rally broke through resistance and after a slow retracement, it has made a higher low and can push towards 140. The stop is at around 112.

chart 

OST has peeled back to be down 12 at 103. The late day surge could be due to a rumour of Tata steel buying into the company just as the squeeze was hotting up. Of my existing positions, all long, LNC, PDN and PRU are pretty much unchanged with AGO up 6.5 at 326.5.

I'm tempted to get back into LYC but I'm not taken by the weekly. I'm also concerned that the US charts are making an upsloping wedge, the sort that precedes a sharpish pullback.

chart

4.07 PDN reached 193.5 this morning, just short of the recent high. Despite a strong rise overnight, there has been a wall of selling today. This tips the balance in favour of a retracement so I'm selling out my balance at the match price which looks like it will be 187.5.

That was the closing price for Paladin and I bought more AWC at 124. The index recovered the 4300 level to finish at 4307, up 21, and the highest close of the week.

chart

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