Waiting for the other shoe

I've packed up before my trip with the exception of a long in St Barbara. It's up at 198.5 which is only a tick above yesterday's buy price so the underperformance vis a vis the gold price is continuing. The chart looks plausible and might burst through 200, hopefully today.

The US market traded erratically and closed up a touch. It's all a waiting game until news from Bernanke on possible QE3 measures. The Asx 200 has climbed from a flat start to a rise of 46 points, at 10.54 am, but it's on light volume and yesterday we saw the same thing, only for a reversal to come through. I'd say that the move will be largely sustained today but in the medium term it looks like a correction. Here's the daily.

There may be some sort of second attempt at 4300 but after that I'd expect to see another drive down towards the recent low. It might not hit the extreme below 3800 but somewhere in the ballpark. I feel like I'm going to be missing a decent buying opportunity in a couple of weeks but then I realise that there were some fabulous shorting opportunities that I missed in the last few weeks so it's more to do with being fresh and alert. Having said that, if I notice a nice set up, I might buy a couple of things while I'm away!

1.01 The market is up 72 now. I've bought LYC and MSB on an intraday basis, looking for a higher low and an afternoon leg up. They've both sold off from early strength but with the failure of the market to sell off broadly, they might have another pop. If not, I'm out.

MSB

1.56 My long positions are a stretch because with the market already up 70 odd points, it's asking a lot for it to go again. I thought I might have to dump them, but they're finding support now. Just about everything in my watchlist is moving helped by figures showing that the Chinese economy is stabilising.

3.46 No luck with the longs, out of MSB for a 3 cent loss at 718 and thinking of holding the small long in LYC because I quite like the market set up for tomorrow. SBM is going nowhere, needs to get through some selling around 198-200.

I was close to buying FMG at 563 earlier and that one has run so my stock selection is off.

Here's the Asx 200 30 minute chart. Forming a base intraday and making a break as we move into the close.

4.11 There was a lift at the match which took the index to a rise of 91 points and set fair for some continuation tomorrow. I sold a handful of LYC at 171.5 and SBM at 199.