Thursday, August 18, 2011

Effective target

I've been thinking some more about the targets I've recently set for myself and while I'm happy with them and I think they're going to give me something to shoot for, they're the outcome and the process is more interesting. To backtrack, about 18 months ago I realised that an effective approach would be to buy (or sell) at levels where my stop was close by and the risk/reward was good. This is in contrast to chasing buy or sell signals, instead I might wait for a pullback after a buy or look for something which could be a higher low and would form up into a breakout. I've drifted away from that slightly, to my cost, maybe because I felt I was using this as a crutch to cover up my difficulties with stopping out. I think I was getting a bit hard core there because although it doesn't necessarily resolve issues around loss, it doesn't hurt either and it does work.
There's another element that I've been puzzling over and that's how to build in "feel" or flow. I'm getting a sense that I don't need to build it in, I just need to get out of the way. I'm too busy fretting about what I want to happen and how to make it happen, that I don't leave well enough alone. Anyway, I'll see how that goes.
The market has had a strange opening period. There was some kind of large buy portfolio which provided an early lift but once that was soaked up, the market fell. It's having a minor recovery and is down 31 at 11.22 am.
FMG is back to 618 and I've bought a few back at 614. DJS was bid up on the portfolio and hasn't come back. I jobbed some stock to make a few dollars but the overnight position (fairly small) has gone against me. I was reluctant to take it off on what seemed like thin volume so I'm still in. Next stop is around 294.
chart
2.15 The index is 1% lower and it looks increasingly like the retracement has topped out. Here's the Asx 200 daily.
chart
Down 51, a minute or two later, I've been shorting stocks intraday and looking to buy back and that's going ok. Even DJS is easing but still up 7 on the day.

3.29 For some reason, Windows live writer is playing up with downloading charts so maybe the old Blogger software will work. I've put on an overnight short in TOL at 446. The stock has been way up to resistance and I'm looking for a pullback to about 410-420.
3.58 Out of the FMG short at 606.

4.09 I was a bit dopey today. The activity in the morning was probably due to the August option expiry for the Asx 200 contract and DJS has a new substantial shareholder, a US fund, which helped turn sentiment around there. The stock wound back though and finished at 283 after touching 291 earlier. I still have the small short there around 276 but picked up some money today jobbing stock. TOL closed at 442 and I shorted QAN on the close at 156. It looks like a pennant correction with the announcement of an Asian offshoot unable to provide much support. It touched 159.5 early but couldn't go on, my stop is at 162.

The index closed near the bottom of the range at 4251, down 53. It also broke yesterday's low.

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