Enthusiastic shoppers

Unlike the customers of poor old DJS, who have just downgraded their FY12 forecast again, Australian investors were keen to pick up the early bargains after more European and US slumps overnight. We've already had a bear market – not that it's over yet – so there's an element in Germany and the US of playing catch up. The market is down 1.1% after an hour and I joined in with the buyers and picked up stock in some of the harder hit resource plays. I'm out now and have started to put on a couple of small intraday shorts as there's the possibility that we may have topped out for the morning. Chinese markets will open soon and they may be less sanguine than the markets which are open – Australia, NZ, Japan, Kospi – and down 1% or so.

I cut my OST position at 139 but more than compensated with the completed trades so it's been a good start to the day. I'm aware of the usual pattern of the morning offering the best intraday opportunities and I'm wary of doing much more from here unless something really good turns up.

What I'd like is to be able to put on an overnight long and the gold stocks are the one sector that are doing well but the two I was considering in RSG and SBM have got away from me. Anyway, here's the Asx 200 daily. It's too early to be going hard at anything overnight since it seems equally probable that the market could be at 4300 or 3900 in a day or two.

11.42 Weaker than expected jobs numbers plus a 2.6% lower open for the HSI caused the futures contract to drop 20 points only for the move to reverse in about 5 minutes. The AUD fell a cent and has recovered half and the HSI is also picking up from the open. It's all getting too choppy and tricky and I'm out of most trades for now.

12.19 A real surge has pushed the market into the black and futures have rallied 90 points since the post 11.30 am sell off.

2.10 We saw a new high for this retracement by about 6 points at 4167. Asian markets and US futures are, like us, better than they might have been but I'm wondering whether that might be it for this leg up. It's still too hard to call and apart from some intraday trading here and there, I don't plan to do anything either way.

3.40 I've been going through my charts again and I feel like the risk reward equation favours the downside but there's too much risk in being short stock. The banks have had some of the strongest rallies and I've gone short NAB via puts to limit my risk. I've bought the August 2350 puts at 104 with the stock at about 2300. It has rallied from a spike low below 2000 and is unlikely to see that level again in the short term but it still looks overbought and could drop 150 pretty quickly. My stop is at 2400, the level from which NAB broke down.

4.13 A volatile day but a flat close, half a point higher at 4141. NAB finished at 2290. The best part of the day was the first half hour to an hour when I traded out of some early bargains although in retrospect, if I'd held through to midday, it would have been even better. I got caught out trying to day trade in the afternoon again but realised I was falling back into an old pattern and got out. It was a waste of time, as it usually is. Having pulled myself up, I was then able to step back and look at the overnight potentials. I can't say that I find the NAB trade compelling but it's ok and it's a way to get into a more useful habit of scanning the market in the last hour for overnight opportunities. I'm supposed to do it every day but when I'm caught up with intraday trading, it often takes a back seat.