Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Not so safe havens

It's just after 2 pm and the index is very close to the day's low, down 94 at 4172. Towards the close of yesterday's trading, early signs for Europe and the US looked quite good and that kept a lid on any falls. Those markets couldn't sustain early strength and despite the falls being moderate, the losses here are steep. Resources remain under pressure but the selling is now across the board. I've closed out short positions in MQG, NCM, PRU, UGL and WSA and have had a very good result in TOL which has fallen 15% on a profit warning. Out of half of the short at 485 with the stock now at 475.

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I also sold the XJO puts for about 50 which is a small loss. They're worth about 80 now but although I was bearish, I didn't expect the scale of the selling we've seen today and they expire first thing tomorrow morning. I'm reasonably happy since they could have been worthless today if it had been another day of consolidation. The WBC puts are beginning to perform ok with the stock down 1.3%.

I've added new short positions in IAG and QBE as I'm betting that the selling will move into the outperforming sectors. Short IAG at 337 as it breaks support.

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Short QBE at 1330 as it seems to have finished a minor retracement.

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4.37 The fall cracked the 100 point mark to leave the close at the low, down 101 at 4165. Nothing much was able to rally but WBC was the best performer of the major banks, falling just 1%, so I'm hoping for some catch up in the next day or so. It was a good day and the month has been healthy too; it helps when the market starts to show some volatility. Here's a daily for the Asx 200.

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