Friday, May 4, 2012

Dollar dazzlers

The market is finally having a soft day, down 28 to 4401 at 2 pm. I've had a good day on the short side and the longs are reasonably steady. Covered the last shorts in ASL and BLY, both in the low 380s average, with the stocks trading down into the 370s. I added shorts in two other mining services companies which had been retracing. Short BKN at 736 and IMD at 260 with trailing stops.

Here's BKN...covered a couple back at 722 but still short.

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The daily chart for IMD is below.

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I added another continuation short in BPT at 140.

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The Reserve bank has lowered inflation expectations, firming up the chances of further rate cuts and the dollar has eased down to 1.026 to the USD. I'm already long ALL which is a beneficiary of a weaker dollar and I've added CPU at 856. This had a great run through to mid April and has retraced since. It's not the greatest looking chart but the stock seems to be finding support here and the momentum of the sell off was weak. Stop is at 840.

chart

I added a couple of potential reversal longs – very tentatively. The first is JBH at 945.

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The next is WTF at 401.

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I stopped out of the last of the RSG at 164 though I did get some away at 171 late yesterday. I also sold out a couple more ERA at 181 and don't have much left there.

It's mainly the banks that are keeping the Aussie market afloat and they're looking very extended now. Here's WBC.

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4.19 The banks began to roll over and the market fell 33 to finish at 4396. There was some late buying which took the edge off the fall. It's a decent pullback but the trend is intact for now which means that although I'm bearish in the medium term, I'm fairly balanced as far as my book is concerned.

The reversal longs in JBH and WTF closed well but not conclusively and I sold out a tiny amount of both at modestly better levels than the entries. The last two days have been a welcome reversal of fortune for me and I'm looking forward to next week.

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