It hasn't panned out as hoped. The market has squeezed up today and the original short term target around 4340-4350 for the Asx 200 hasn't been so wide of the mark. Unfortunately, I gave up on that yesterday and bought some XJO puts at 56 which are down to 35 today. TOL is going ok – down 1 – and SUN had a good early run.
I'm not so fussed about the XJO puts, there's plenty of time until expiry and I think a top is forming so it's an error of timing rather than direction...for now. However, I am concerned about WPL. I don't like the fact that it made a new short term low by a measly 1 cent yesterday and has rebounded quite strongly today to be trading up 1.9% at 3462.
My position is held via puts and while that makes for a volatile P/L account, at least the loss is limited. However, I do want to make a profit here and my scenario is looking less plausible. To recap, I saw the stock as having broken support just below 3500. There had been a bounce back to the bottom of the band followed by renewed weakness, until today... Ideally, I'd like to see the sell off gather momentum but that's clearly not happening.
Getting back to the index, I'm looking for a lower high here or a worst case of a fleeting new high. A sustained drive up would not suit.
4.12 The market gapped higher first thing today and stayed in a very narrow range between 4338 and 4349. It finished at 4348 which is a rise of 1.4%. WPL closed at 3455 and TOL at 576.
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