Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Gravity, the big G.

The market's down 32 points at 10 to 2 as we await the December rate cut...or not. It might have been built in so it looks like a lose/lose with no real gain from it today and the chance of a sell off on disappointment. My positions are hanging in there except for AWC which was a hard one to buy but at least I cut the position size back.

I've been debating about when to stop out. I decided last week that I'd favour stopping out on the close but it's a tricky one when you've already decided to sell. Anyway, I'll stick to the plan. The two longs to go are the balances in PDN and RSG.

PDN is just a trailing stop. My entry price was 155 and it's trading at 169.

chart

RSG is a trailing stop but only after I held off on stopping out last Friday. I eventually sold half out on a rally to 200 but it's back at 195.5. This was an odd one where I no longer had confidence in the trade but it was recovering so I hedged my bets.

chart

SEK did trade below yesterday's low but only briefly and on light volume. It has very good momentum so I'm less concerned about getting out.

chart

I almost shorted IPL last Friday but wanted a clearer signal with the market so strong. There's now a 1-2-3 sell signal and the chance of a push down to the 290-300 range. My stop would be 325 so I'm hoping it doesn't fall much more today.

chart

3.24 There was quite a bit of relief that the RBA did cut rates by another quarter of one percent although the market sold down as I figured it would. It's now 53 points lower and there are a couple more potential shorts lining up.

4.16 Out of PDN at 165 and RSG at 195 as the market closed on its lows. I shorted IPL at 314 along with a couple of others. One of the new shorts was OSH. The rally took it up to a new, recent high yesterday which was not sustained. Today there was further weakness. Short at 648 with an initial stop at 668.

chart

My positions are now net short although I can't say I'm particularly bearish, it's just a pause in a run up. I'm trying not to second guess my fairly short term signals and I have to admit that it's paying off. Here's the Asx 200 chart; I guess it could have a couple more down days.

chart

No comments:

Post a Comment