It's 2.10 pm and the Asx 200 is down 13 points, having traded in a very tight range and performed better than most Asian markets. My best position is last night's short in DJS which is down 8 at 276. The only action today has been to cut AWC at 138 (136.5 now) as a trailing stop was broken.
I didn't really want to take this trade, I had a few ideas why at the time and I want to see if it's just bad luck or there's something specific about this trade that can help with my filters. The updated daily is below.
Maybe it's as obvious as it looks. Although there was a 1-2-3 buy signal, the rally was already quite mature and the price was rapidly approaching the pennant shaped mid range from which it had broken down. If there had been more room to move before hitting congestion then I would have been more confident about buying despite the move being into its sixth day. Alternatively, if the pause had gone on for 2 or 3 days rather than one, I would also have felt comfortable about there being some follow through.
It looks like a short now and so does FMG which has had a variation on this theme with a waning rally taking it up to resistance. I'll see how it closes.
Obviously, political considerations are providing a huge smokescreen with the upcoming European summit meaning that I'm trying to limit position size.
4.10 The match took the loss to 12 points after the index had almost reached breakeven in normal trading hours. The potential trades, both long and short, didn't pan out as the stocks tended towards the mean.
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