Monday, March 12, 2012

Out of sync

I'm not quite in step and today's little surprise has been PDN. I shorted at 177.5 and it had moved back to around breakeven. I thought that 180 would just about hold if the stock had finished its rally. That seemed to be happening until a company announcement of a Canadian court victory allowing Paladin to drill in Inuit lands. The stock gapped up and I've stopped out at 185.

chart

The Asx 200 is 11 points lower at 4201 at 2 pm and the AUD is lower as a result of weaker Chinese export figures. BHP has failed to hold on to the overnight ADR price and RIO has fallen from a flat opening to be down 0.7% but the smaller end of the resource spectrum is quite solid. FMG is moving close to my stop while AGO and WSA are edging higher.

The bright spot is a good lift in RMD to 587 and some minor weakness in QBE to 1185 where I've accumulated some more April 1150 puts at 21. The weekly chart of QBE is below and my trade is in anticipation of the recovery being complete and another leg down in the offing.

chart

3.48 The trade in FMG was impulsive and has gone quite badly. I usually like to sell into some weakness and instead I've been caught in a whip back to a new high. I have to think I'm not the only one because the iron ore sector is going nowhere but this is up 3.8%. There is a corporate investor taking an interest but it doesn't make sense for them to chase it so hard on a day when two states have public holidays. Anyway, I'm looking to stop out by the close now that last week's high has been passed.

chart

4.12 I stopped out of FMG at 586 as it closed just below the day's high. The Asx 200 actually fell 15 points to 4197.

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